'I (nearly) told you so': How Indian democracy sprang back from the brink

Some thoughts on the results of general elections that are just out

The first feeling that came to me as early trends showed an upset for India’s ruling BJP was: I told you so. The proof is here:

However, it would be dishonest for me to claim to have accurately predicted the results. I was just ranking the three likely scenarios on the basis of probability as thing stood mid-election on May 16.

Moreover, as Prashant Kishor, the veteran analyst and election strategist weighed in after almost a week giving BJP-led coalition nearly two-thirds majority, I downplayed my earlier predictions. His arguments were indeed quite convincing.

After all, I was bound to suffer from the bias that results from wishful thinking. Even though I am a citizen of Nepal, India’s tiny northern neighbor, election results in India have huge repercussions for our country and people. Modi’s party has been indeed vigorous in propelling the pro-Hindutva voice in Nepal’s public discourse. Many of us have long feared that if the saffron political outfits modeled after Modi’s BJP gain more relevance in Nepal, we risk entering a new phase of strife, instability and even sectarian conflict.

Going with a Modi-landslide scenario was thus a kind of coping mechanism for many in Nepal who have been dreading the bigotry and hatred that has been continuously seeping across the border from the South ever since Modi came to power. If that scenario materialized, we could say: it was long in coming and we’ll fight it anyway. If not, jubilation would drown our earlier despair anyway and no coping would be required.

How did the results end up the way they did? Here is my snap analysis in Nepali that I published yesterday afternoon in my youtube channel:

For non-Nepali speakers among you, here is a brief summary of the three main reasons that nearly upset Modi’s applecart who will now be dependent on his coalition partners even for simple majority unlike after the two past elections:

1. The main slogan backfired: ab ki baar char sau par was the omnipresent slogan of Modi’s party this election season, meaning this time, we’ll cross 400 [seats in a 543-seat parliament with absolute two-third majority]. Indeed this was considered a masterstroke until it was not. This slogan backfired because the opposition—with help of BJP’s own loudmouthed leaders—built the convincing case that the BJP would go on to change the constitution [of the secular inclusive republic making it exclusionary Hindu theocracy] and put an end to the affirmative action. A good chunk of BJP’s erstwhile voters, most of them from the marginalized castes and tribes, shifted to the opposition in the nick of time giving BJP a tally of 240—well short of the 272 mark—and its coalition a not-so-impressive 293.

2. Candidate selection predicated on unchallenged victory: The opposition regularly alleged that the BJP was active like a ‘washing machine’ for corrupt leaders from opposition who got the cleanliness certificate the moment they entered the ruling party. That was indeed the reality and BJP was confident enough to give many of such recently ‘washed’ the prestigious election ‘tickets’. Other candidates, many of them incumbents for 10 years, had little to show for as MPs in a country where Modi has monopolized every sort of political capital. A guaranteed victory meant that no hard efforts were required to win the elections especially in the Hindi heartlands of India. This had built a lot of complacency among BJP candidates. And the biggest upset for the party came in UP, the country’s most populous Hindi heartland state.

3. The economy dog finally bites: Just beneath the veneer of a fast-growing economy in India lies the tragic reality of stubbornly high unemployment and inflation under Modi rule. Rising and extreme inequality with the vulgarly displayed wealth of a handful of Modi cronies has not helped. Indeed, the most prominent gimmicks like the grand opening of the Ram temple in Ayodhya just before the elections were organized just to distract people from the grim economic reality of day-to-day life. This trick has worked election after election for Modi since 2014. But this time, a good number of voters, mainly the young, seem to have said ‘enough is enough’.

To show how precisely these results, with Modi likely to form the new government despite the setbacks, is a reprieve for Indian democracy, I’ll quote mysel from the last post explaining the three scenarios:

Even though Modi retains power in this scenario, many things are bound to change in India in case this materializes. As the coalition has some parties far more pluralistic and less bigoted than BJP, I believe this outcome is going to moderate the excesses from the Modi 1.0 and 2.0.

I even dare hope that India’s slide down the authoritarian path will be significantly decelerated as the junior coalition partners will likely have far less to gain from such a slide.

The opposition would be in a far more energized state than in the past. So would be the media and civic organizations.

Once the aura of invincibility around Modi fades, the RSS, the parent theocratic organization which purportedly oversees he functioning of his party, may choose to replace him with a younger leader more tuned to the changing times.

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