Three Scenarios for India after the Elections

Will India look like today's Poland, Russia or Germany after these elections?

Polling schedule for Indian general elections 2024. Courtesy: The Hindu

You may not be interested in India but as the home to 1 in every 5.6 living persons in the world, India is interested in you. The fate of 17.76% of earth’s human beings is now being decided in the polls which are already underway.

So, what are the possible outcomes of these elections? Here is my take.

#1. The Poland Scenario: Modi loses, the opposition coalition forms the government

The least likely scenario at this time if you ask me. It was not for nothing that Modi’s electoral machine has worked tirelessly for the past five (even 10) years. That too through means both fair and foul, like using tax authorities to bankrupt the main opposition party and jailing the leaders of many opposition parties in transparently phony cases.

But many are now betting on this option especially after the 7-phase marathon polls have crossed the halfway mark.

On what basis do they think that the Modi apple-cart may be upset after all? Here are some worthy explanations by the eloquent journalists Faye D’Souza and Aaksh Banerjee.

#2. The Putin’s Russia Scenario: Modi defies all mid-poll predictions and re-emerges with a landslide.

Even though the number of people forecasting such an outcome has been steadily declining as the polls have progressed, I think this is still the second most likely scenario for India after 4th of June.

I think this will truly pave the path for India’s transformation from a decade of quasi-authoritarianism under Modi 1.0 and 2.0 to hard-edged authoritarianism under Modi 3.0.

India’s remaining civil liberties will likely be the first to go away as Modi government has already prepared the noose around the necks of people who are trying to hold it accountable through online platforms, mostly youtube.

It will then eventually lead to a divisive, oppressive and militant majoritarian ‘Hindu’ theocracy, something unheard of in relation to the religion and philosophy that preaches harmony, pluralism and tolerance among people and has indivisibility of the universe as its core vaule.

In this scenario, Indian constitution may survive in theory but I find it hard to see how it will be upheld in practice with many ruling leaders having already sought vote from the people to change the constitution itself.

Do you think I am exaggerating such a threat? Then, may be you are unaware of the reality in which the Modi government has been already practicing a brutal Taliban-style extrajudicial onslaught against the minorities, mostly the Muslims. This headline speaks for itself:

Collective punishment? Demolitions in Haryana’s Nuh spanned at least 50 km

#3. The German Scenario: No single party has majority, coalition rule emerges after a decade

Once again, my prediction is that the ruling NDA coalition led by BJP will prevail even if the party comes short of 272 mark on its own on June 4th.

On balance, this looks like the most likely outcome to me at this point of time.

Even though Modi retains power in this scenario, many things are bound to change in India in case this materializes. As the coalition has some parties far more pluralistic and less bigoted than BJP, I believe this outcome is going to moderate the excesses from the Modi 1.0 and 2.0.

I even dare hope that India’s slide down the authoritarian path will be significantly decelerated as the junior coalition partners will likely have far less to gain from such a slide.

The opposition would be in a far more energized state than in the past. So would be the media and civic organizations.

Once the aura of invincibility around Modi fades, the RSS, the parent theocratic organization which purportedly oversees he functioning of his party, may choose to replace him with a younger leader more tuned to the changing times.

Finally, what makes these scenarios plausible in a race that was supposed to be a done deal with a third landslide victory for Modi beyond doubt at the beginning of the polls?

Well, there are many things but the most striking one is the increasingly bizarre, unhinged and often contradictory speeches from Modi himself. Here is a good sample (in Hindi).

In case either the first or the third scenario materializes in India and it turns corner towards a more vibrant democracy, you have one person to thank for it the most: Dhruv Rathee, the youtuber-turned-pro-democracy-crusader.

Without doubt, he has contributed the most for this potential political transformation of India by single-handedly taking on the troll army of the Modi regime that had snuffed out all but a handful of opposition voices. Here is the exhibit, a video warning about Modi’s dictatorial tendency with 33 million views in just one month.

Finally, to understand the full significance of the potential change in the fortunes of any of the political parties in India, please read this:

It happened, so it can happen again – a journey through Auschwitz